Thursday, January 9, 2020

Refocus Middle East

US-Iran crisis is a misleading headline. The real hot bed still remains Iraq.

Its been 17 years since US invaded Iraq seeking weapons of mass destructions. Initiated few years apart from War on terror in Afghanistan, international community absorbed the dossier of intelligence which was fed to it at that time. Weapon of mass destruction, the storage of highly hazardous chemical bombs, what not. Even though Saddam was captured the same year 2003, to this day there is not a trace of those weapons ever found. 

From Abu Ghraib to Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi, a generation of humiliated insecure nervous toddlers have evolved into their voting age. As we stepped into 2020, there was a continued standoff between Iraqi protestors and Baghdad US Embassy.

This standoff by the protestors occurred after US airstrike had killed at least 25 members of an organization named ‘Kataib Hezbollah’ through precision strikes against its five facilities. Designated terror organization since 2009 by US, this Iranian backed militia has a strong foothold in western Iraq and Eastern Syria. Its leader Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis accompanied the Iranian General Qassem Soleimani when the convoy was hit by US drone strike.

Iraqi Prime Minister Adil Abdul Mahdi said at a parliamentary session on Sunday that he was scheduled to meet with Qasem Soleimani on the morning the top Iranian general was killed.
Mahdi said Soleimani was supposed to carry a message from Iran “in response to the Saudi message that we brought to Iran in order to reach important agreements and situations regarding Iraq and the region.”

Mahdi said he was optimistic after a visit to Saudi Arabia in September 2019 that Baghdad had a plan to open dialogue between Riyadh and Tehran to calm tensions in the region, according to an interview on state-run TV station al-Iraqiya.

Since the escalation between Iran and US reached a new high in the wake of US killing Iran’s top general inside Iraq, the new buzzword was World War III. It is paramount to see the branding of this nervy Middle Eastern crisis in such a vocabulary. The global discussion is engulfed with wide ranging possibilities of what ifs.

Videos of Iranian people offering their General’s funeral vowing revenge and expulsion of US forces from the region has got President Trump lose his head over twitter. In a chest thumping reply to Iranian threats he tweeted to strike 52 heritage sites inside Iran.




This sizable war of words is worrisome at least for us here next door in Pakistan. We did neither condemn US actions nor did we express any solidarity with Iran. Pakistani Foreign Minister walking on a tight rope while speaking to the upper house, said that ‘Pakistan won’t take sides in the Iran-US confrontation. Neat for now.

This morning right after Fajr time, I saw a video on twitter.


Barrages of missiles launching in the air, and apparently heading in the same direction.

From the events visible in the video, it appeared a fresh video to me. Later in the day I found that Iranians actually successfully landed some of these ballistic missiles inside US bases in Iraq. Good job, Nice target. US confirmed being hit stating there were no casualties. While exercising superior Air power US executed an Iranian general last week, through an un-manned aerial drone, probably being flown by some operator in some other continent. That’s Precision, and Iranian’s war machinery is definitely a technological mismatch.

But Iran released some avenging steam and restored some national integrity & self-esteem.
The nervy day passed by and I did not get any update, until again in the woo hours, I ran forward through Trump’s speech on the matter today. Unlike his previous statements, today he did not appear gung-ho over military action, at all. He backed away from furthering any armed escalation, while only yesterday he sounded GPS locked on future missile strikes within Iran. Not to mention there was a backlash from pentagon over Trumps threat to bomb Iran’s heritage sites. So what changed in a day? Iran a day earlier had hinted missile targets expanding further into Arab States including Israel, followed by successfully landing payload inside US bases in Iraq.

So what changed Trump’s attitude?
A tit for tat, just that.

Earlier Putin visited Syria further undermining US credibility in the region. Having just completed a 4 day joint naval exercise with Iran involving China, Kremlin is adding to US hostilities already in the region.

Iraq's Parliament voted for expulsion of U.S. military from its country over mounting anger about a drone strike that killed Iran's Qasem Soleimani and earlier U.S. airstrikes in the country. "We've spent a lot of money in Iraq," Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One "We have a very extraordinarily expensive air base that’s there. It cost billions of dollars to build. ... We’re not leaving unless they pay us back for it."

Avoiding all the rowdy noise and commentary following US assassination of General Soleimani, I for a moment would like to pause and rethink, if Iraqi’s protesting in front of the Baghdad US Embassy demanding the expulsion of foreign occupiers is not the eye of the storm, for US already?